The Storm Before the Calm

The title of this podcast, The Storm Before the Calm, is taken from a book by George Friedman, founder of Geopolitical Futures. 

A good friend of mine gave me this book for Christmas. Initially, I balked at the title. I was not eager to read about “the storm” since we have been living in the eye of a hurricane since January 20, 2025, when Donald Trump took office. The last thing I wanted to do was read anything about Trump. 

I tackled The Storm, and it’s a great book—very insightful. I love the long-view historical perspective. Yes, Trump is in the book, but he’s not the storm. We’re the storm.

Today, we’ll be talking history, economics and institutional and socioeconomic cycles.  

Here are the Time Stamps

 | We Are the Storm  | 0:21
 | Don't Worry. It's Just a Phase.  | 1:48
 | Cycling Through US History  | 8:14
 | The Rise of Feminism  | 11:45
 | Backlash in the 21st Centruy  | 14:05
 | Tired of the Trickle-Down  | 19:33
 | Common Themes Throughout Our History  | 25:00:00

Friedman writes that the US has two predictable cycles that date back to the "invention" of the country by the Founding Fathers: the 80-year institutional cycle and the 50-year socioeconomic cycle. Think of them like the tectonic plates shifting before an earthquake. 

At the end of each 50-year economic cycle, there is division and great upheaval in the country and "it's as if the country is tearing itself apart," Friedman writes. 

That's where we are today. I was surprised -- and somewhat dismayed but oddly relieved -- to find out that in this decade both of these cycles will shift. Two earthquakes. In 2020, Friedman said that 2025 would be a pivotal year. Well, here we are! 

The signals of a shift to a new socioeconomic cycle are: great discontent among the people, broken or obsolete economic systems, and a "failed president" at the end of the cycle. This president is elected during the social unrest and upheaval but uses old ideas and old models to solve current problems. 

Clinging to old models doesn't work and often makes the situation for the people worse. A classic example is President Herbert Hoover clinging to the old models and ignoring the plight of millions of hungry and impoverished Americans. The Great Depression got worse during his term.

Hoover was the "failed president" at the end of that cycle and President Franklin Roosevelt was the first president in the new cycle. Roosevelt made sweeping changes to the federal government to tackle the Great Depression, to feed people and put them back to work, build infrastructure and fight fascism in World War II. President Lyndon Johnson built on the New Deal with the Great Society. The middle class and the union movement grew during this cycle. And the rich paid taxes. President Jimmy Carter was the "failed president" at the end of that cycle.

We are in the waning years of the cycle that began with President Ronald Reagan. He infamously introduced us to "trickle-down" economics. The theory is that dramatically cutting taxes on the rich would lead to "trickle-down" wealth. Making the rich richer was somehow supposed to enrich the masses. We have been suffering under this failed model for decades. 

Thanks to 50 years of Reaganomics, the wealth gap in the US is wider than ever, the billionaires are becoming trillionaires, corporate welfare is running rampant while people are hungry, the middle class has shrunk, the cost of housing, automobiles and college has skyrocketed. 

The Trump/Musk regime is clinging to the failed model that got here -- tax cuts for the rich and deregulation. Is Trump the last "failed president" of the Trickle-Down Era?